2011/08/21

How long do we have?

This post highlights the potential timeframes we have to deal with as far as any energy-intensive solution to impending climate change and sea level rise is concerned.

You will recall that with the global CO2 levels now passing through 390ppm, there is nothing standing in the way of an eventual melt-out of most of the global ice sheets, and consequent 70 to 80 metre sea level rise.

This chart is our view of the future of oil supply for small nations that are net importers of oil.




The chart uses two sources of data:- 
Declining production data from the IEA World Energy Outlook 2010's expected crude oil production from Existing fields plus part of the IEA's Fields yet to be developed and Fields yet to be found.  
and
Consumption data from the CIA World Fact Book:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2173rank.html
The net-exporter's consumption is incremented by a modest 2.9% per year from 2010 levels.


The premise is that net exporting nations will continue to favour supplying their internal consumption over exporting their oil during the next 20 years.  These nations will thus become prime locations for global manufacturing as oil supplies to the net importing nations become more tenuous.  


At the same time their production capacity will be affected generally in the same way as the rest of the world, as depicted by the IEA's WEO2010.  

The suggested rate of increase of the internal consumption of the producing nations used in the chart above of only 2.9% per year is likely to be very 'conservative', but things get quite bad enough fast enough with that rate; people can make their own assessment of the more likely rate and the following implications.  (Saudi Arabia's internal consumption is rising at about 5.5% per year, for example.)


The largest oil importers (say the top ten importers including USA, China, Japan, Germany, South Korea and India etc) will make (have made) agreements with other exporters to assure supply of their import requirements over the same period - at any cost.  


This leaves 'what's left' of global oil exports for the other 140 net importing nations, including many nations with little or no internal oil production at all.


The 'what's left' for these 140 nations is depicted on this chart as what could be termed a 'Triangle of Hope' spanning on the y axis from about 68 to 80 million barrels per day giving them about 12 mmbl per day today, running out to zero available to them around 2016!  


==ZERO! FOUR YEARS TIME.==  


And the internal demand of the net exporters reaches their present day production levels in 20 years time.  At which time there is nothing left to send to any of the importers.


At that stage, 20 years out from now, this chart suggests that the only oil that will be availably to any nation will be the oil it produces itself.  It appears that there will not be any nation with a surplus of supply over demand.  Its my guess that past that date any global oil movements will be by way of private treaty between parties with something to trade rather than within any open market.


I offer this perspective on the global oil supply situation as an incentive to viewers to hasten their personal and community preparations for the coming 'interesting times'.

For a fuller version of this post with background info refer to: 
http://oilshockhorrorprobe.blogspot.co.nz/2011/10/when-might-new-zealands-oil-imports-dry.html#more


Kind regards


Nigel

1 comment:

  1. Wow, such a great and detailed research, Im just wondering how long did it take for you to study that data?

    ReplyDelete