2014/08/01

Time to break out the gum boots?

This just in from Arctic News
...2.5m Sea Level Rise by 2040???

'A polynomial trendline applied to the data points at a sea level rise of more than 2.5 m (8.2 ft) by the year 2040. ..'

The analysis considers whether the trend in increase in sea levels should be considered as linear (same amount next year as last year) or polynomial (more next year than last year, and more again the year after).  The conclusion appears to be that the rate of rise will continue to increase, leading to the conclusion that SLR will get to 2.5 meters by 2040, and of course it will continue to behave exponentially until a balance is achieved between the amount of grounded ice left to melt and the rising global air and sea temperatures, when the rate of rise will fall back to zero when the last ice block is melted in a world that is somewhere between two and five (God help us!) degrees warmer than today. 

Hansen a while back (2011) discussed doubling times of the observed sea level rise and showed how (like compound interest) this would predict a rise of 5 metres by 2100 .

This new work suggests that with 'business as usual warming (including the accelerated warming the polar areas are experiencing - they always get more than their fair share of the additional heat - the sky is the limit for global temperatures, and with those temperatures comes faster melt, as well as all the other interesting side effects of a more energetic climate.

As evidence of those unfortunate effects we have an airliner at cruising altitude taken out and destroyed, by the weather.  A sad pointer to times to come.  And another.

(As part of preparations, and recognising the weather we are getting already, I'm working on plans for a storm-proof greenhouse, as we just lost a lot of seedlings due to storm and we don't want that to happen again.)

Keep up the great work!
N  

1 comment:

  1. 'Risk of major sea level rise in Northern Europe

    Global warming leads to the ice sheets on land melting and flowing into the sea, which consequently rises. New calculations by researchers from the Niels Bohr Institute show that the sea level in Northern Europe may rise more than previously thought. There is a significant risk that the seas around Scandinavia, England, the Netherlands and northern Germany will rise by up to about 1.5 m in this century.'

    http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/yournews/61652

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