2009/07/07

Five degrees and five metres by 2100?

New information is suggesting that temperature rise may exceed current IPCC expectations. Five degrees Celsius is bound to give rise to more than just 2 metres sea level rise.

In my view, while 2 metres was strongly supported by people like Dr Hansen under 2008 Business as Usual scenarios, this recent information making it likely that we will get 5 degrees Celsius warming by 2100 leads me to recommend that we use the 5 metres by 2100 table and chart here as our basis for sign locations.

5 & 5 by 2100. Gulp!

This condition could give rise to accelerated ice loss, and hence sea level rise.

Thus by 'eyeometry' a curve fitted to past and expected long term SLR could entail this data:

DATE (YEAR AD)SLR (m)
18000
19000.02
20000.2
20250.5
20501.4
20752.9
21005
220015
230027
240040
250052
260059.5
270063.5
280066.5
290068.5
300070
310071
400075
500077.5

and look like this:


and in detail

(Click on images for enlarged view)

This could be a more realistic view of our imminent future to use in our depictions of the Sea Level Rise that is coming.

So find out how far above high water your site is, and interpolate values from the above table or charts to figure out what date to write on your sign.

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